The global spirits market is forecast to grow by almost 122 million nine-litre cases between 2014 and 2020, and to surpass 3.2 billion cases by 2020, according to the latest forecast data from the International Wines and Spirits Record.
Although this marks a steady rise in volume, the category’s compound annual growth rate between 2014 and 2020 of +0.6% will be noticeably slower than the previous five-year CAGR of +3.6%.
Growth is expected to be more conservative than previously, as many markets experienced strong recovery of volumes in the aftermath of the global recession. The lion’s share of the growth will stem from Asia, with China and India outperforming all other markets.
However, growth in North America, Africa & Middle East and the duty-free markets will all contribute to the category’s overall expansion, explains IWSR global trends and innovation consultant Sophia Holliday in The IWSR Forecast 2015-2020 Global Review.
Population growth and rising disposable income levels in many emerging markets will aid growth in spirits consumption, but also mature markets such as the US and the UK are set to draw back some of the attention from less-developed regions with attractive opportunities for volume and value development.
Total annual consumption of whisk(e)y will rise to 467.4 m cases, overtaking vodka to become the second-largest spirits category behind national spirits by 2020. Whisky and tequila are forecasted to be the fastest-growing spirits categories, with a CAGR from 2014-2020 of +3.8% and +2.9% respectively.
Consumption of imported spirits is forecast to rise with a CAGR of +1.6% between 2014 and 2020 adding 37.5m cases, with gin and tequila showing the fastest growth.